Keep in mind that Windows has virtual memory management and the JVM only needs memory that is contiguous in its address space. So, other programs running on the system shouldn’t necessarily impact your heap size. What will get in your way are DLL’s that get loaded in to your address space. Unfortunately optimizations in Windows that minimize the relocation of DLL’s during linking make it more likely you’ll have a fragmented address space. Things that are likely to cut in to your address space aside from the usual stuff include security software, CBT software, spyware and other forms of malware. Likely causes of the variances are different security patches, C runtime versions, etc. Device drivers and other kernel bits have their own address space (the other 2GB of the 4GB 32-bit space).
You could try going through your DLL bindings in your JVM process and look at trying to rebase your DLL’s in to a more compact address space. Not fun, but if you are desperate…
Alternatively, you can just switch to 64-bit Windows and a 64-bit JVM. Despite what others have suggested, while it will chew up more RAM, you will have much more contiguous virtual address space, and allocating 2GB contiguously would be trivial.